Research
Under Review
Immigration without mediation: Brazilians reaction to an influx of Venezuelans (full paper)
Abstract: What is the impact of immigration shocks on the voting behavior of native populations? While numerous studies explore (a) natives’ attitudes toward immigrants and (b) the electoral appeals of anti-immigrant parties, much less is known about how immigration impacts the electoral performance of incumbents. I argue that voters feel threatened by an immigration influx, leading to political discontent. Consequently, higher exposure to immigration results in a lower voting share for incumbents. I empirically test this argument by analyzing the impact of the Venezuelan immigration influx in Brazil during the 2018 Brazilian national elections. In contrast to advanced democracies, where immigration debates often feature prominently, no major Brazilian presidential candidate addressed immigration during the 2018 campaign. Using an instrumental variables and a difference-in-difference designs, I find an effect that immigration shocks promote anti-incumbent behavior. The findings offer empirical evidence supporting the notion that heightened immigration levels can trigger a political backlash. Last update 08/11/2025
Ideological Congruence and Electoral Campaigns (with Patrick Cunha Silva) (full paper)
Abstract: Preferential voting systems encourage candidates to build a personal reputation. However, within the same system, some candidates are more likely than others to adopt personalistic or partisan campaigns. We argue that candidates’ ideological distance from their party is key to understanding such a decision. Ideologically incongruent candidates are less likely to help their parties win office in concurrent elections and are less likely to emphasize their parties’ platforms when campaigning. Using original data on candidate endorsements in Brazil, where federal and state elections are held simultaneously, we show that ideologically incongruent federal-level candidates are more likely to endorse cross-partisan candidates. Furthermore, using cross-national data from five European countries, we demonstrate that ideologically incongruent candidates emphasize their parties’ platforms less than those ideologically aligned with their parties. This paper broadens our understanding of campaigns by showing that individual characteristics contribute to explaining variations in behavior within the same electoral system.
Working papers
Which Candidates Campaign (on Social Media)? A Comparative Analysis of Electoral and Party Influences on Candidates’ Use of Facebook (with Jacob Montgomery, and Taishi Muraoka)
Abstract: When do political candidates choose to engage in their own personal campaign activities rather than rely on their party’s collective communication strategy? This fundamental question has significant implications for democratic representation, yet empirical evidence—particularly during electoral campaigns—remains limited. We address this gap by using candidates’ Facebook activities as a novel measure of personalistic campaigning across 14 democracies. By examining whether candidates maintain personal social media presences separate from party apparatuses, we provide direct cross-national evidence of personalistic campaign strategies. We analyze three levels of influence: country-level electoral institutions, party-level factors including ideology and organizational orientation, and gender. Our preliminary findings show that electoral systems are correlated with candidates’ decisions to campaign on Facebook, with more personalistic (e.g., majoritarian) systems generating higher Facebook usage. Party-level factors show mixed effects as conditioned by their electoral context. Clientelistic parties are more likely to have candidates that campaign independently, and this relationship is stronger in majoritarian settings. However, we find no clear pattern associated with ideological extremism or populism. Finally, the results indicate that women are less likely to engage with Facebook. This analysis highlights the complex interplay between institutional frameworks and party characteristics in shaping campaign behavior, while establishing a foundation for more comprehensive investigations of personalistic campaigning in the digital age.
The Importance of the Socio-Cultural Dimension in Latin American Politics
Abstract: In advanced democracies, scholars are in widespread agreement that two distinct ideological dimensions are needed to understand the structure of political contestation — a socio-cultural one and an economic one. However, in the literature on Latin America, the socio-cultural dimension is largely overlooked, with the literature focusing almost exclusively on how economic issues influence citizens’ preferences. This focus on economics is justified in terms of sheer explanatory power if the socio-cultural dimension and the economic dimension are highly correlated — that is when one’s position on one dimension can be inferred from their position on the other. I will show that a level of correlation that would justify collapsing the socio-cultural and the economic into a single dimension has only been true in Latin America during particular historical conjunctures. During other (long and important) periods, the two dimensions have been significantly cross-cutting — one’s position on one cannot be inferred from their position on the other. When this is the case, any account of politics that relies on a conception of ideology that is unidimensional runs the risk of omitting a potentially important causal force. I will further show that most recently the increased importance of what we might call “traditional values” vis-à-vis issues associated with “law-and-order” in the minds of citizens has made their preferences on an economic dimension a very poor predictor of their position on the socio-cultural one.
Populism Viability and Electoral System: Evaluation of Welsh and Scotish Electoral Diversity
Abstract: This article investigates the relevance of electoral institutions, political cleavages, and their interaction in defining the electoral fortunes of populist radical right (PRR) parties. I argue that—like any party—PR parties are more viable in a context with electorally permissive institutions and in contexts with pronounced political cleavages. I take advantage of the fact that Scottish and Welsh have cast a vote in a majoritarian (House of Commons), PR (European parliament), and mixed (devolved parliaments) election during the turning of the century to assess the relative importance of the institutional framework, political cleavages, and the combination of the two on the voting share of PRR parties. The findings reveal that the interaction between electoral institutions and cleavages is a critical determinant of the success of PRR parties. This research contributes by reinforcing the importance of institutions in defining the role of political actors.
Work in Progress
Do Different Types of Minorities Generate Different Types of Reactions? Evaluating the Effect of Minority Heterogeneity on Populist Backlash.
Border lines and Party lines: The effect of borders on voting behavior in Brazil (with Amaan Acharaniya)